We all want the homicide rate to go down to ZERO, but facts tell us different. The October rate went up with a single digit, but the November rate went up with a stunning 20% (compared with last year)! November 2015 did go into history as the second worst day the last two years after august 2015; meaning the killing rate increases! 2015 become 7% worse than 2014. 2015 become the first time since 2011 that the homicide rate increased in Mexico; from 16.6 in 2014 to 18 per 100.000 inhabitants. Experts estimate an increase in the rate the first quarter of 2016. Most likely we will experience a more than 10% increase.
On a local level we find Guerrero going up with 30% from last year; from 47 in 2014 to 60 per 100.000 inhabitants in 2015. Districto Federal did go up 15% in 2015, and with a rate of 14 per 100.000 inhabitants killing rate (the highest since 1995) we might expect that among the estimated 25 million population to have 3.500 killings in 2015. With an estimated increase of 10% next year we might end up with an estimated 3.850 killings in the capital of Mexico in 2016, and if that was not enough we find that in Querétaro an increase of 43% in homicides. Some states in Mexico like Baja California Sur and Zacatecas we have an increase of more than 100%! We find some states like Nuevo León (down for 4 years), Chihuahua (down 5 years), Coahuila (down 25% to 2014). States with connection to the US border that before had 25% of all murders (42% in 2010) have gone down to 22%. Homicide increases in Mexico, and are creating worries among commoners.